Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.440182 0.508586 0.583218 0.670571 0.769885 0.879161 1.008381
2025-08-10 0.321248 0.413392 0.524047 0.666151 0.843180 1.055786 1.329745
2025-08-17 0.252617 0.352245 0.480676 0.657162 0.891987 1.192113 1.602925
2025-08-24 0.206647 0.308132 0.446887 0.648474 0.931462 1.311753 1.858036
2025-08-31 0.169160 0.267857 0.410063 0.627080 0.946372 1.394568 2.065780
2025-09-07 0.154573 0.257697 0.413075 0.660278 1.038620 1.589384 2.443208
2025-09-14 0.130890 0.229600 0.385007 0.642520 1.052015 1.669411 2.658785
2025-09-21 0.111765 0.205717 0.359886 0.625257 1.062541 1.743567 2.868698
2025-09-28 0.096664 0.186239 0.339085 0.611760 1.076265 1.821811 3.088754
2025-10-05 0.088773 0.178213 0.336270 0.627375 1.138106 1.979919 3.446326
2025-10-12 0.084251 0.175648 0.342431 0.658662 1.228505 2.190558 3.904177
2025-10-19 0.078205 0.169288 0.340867 0.675647 1.294955 2.365334 4.313749
2025-10-26 0.070946 0.159761 0.332731 0.680456 1.341463 2.511939 4.690716
2025-11-02 0.063666 0.149185 0.321390 0.678049 1.374623 2.638007 5.042113
2025-11-09 0.056636 0.138067 0.307556 0.669062 1.394096 2.740282 5.357532
2025-11-16 0.050520 0.128021 0.294617 0.660240 1.412580 2.841327 5.676871
2025-11-23 0.044067 0.116197 0.276443 0.638488 1.403073 2.888490 5.898165
2025-11-30 0.042758 0.116365 0.284220 0.672243 1.508588 3.162621 6.568539
2025-12-07 0.037742 0.106681 0.268878 0.654187 1.505031 3.223546 6.830296
2025-12-14 0.033364 0.097911 0.254517 0.636634 1.500626 3.281835 7.089925
2025-12-21 0.029734 0.090512 0.242452 0.622910 1.502998 3.353477 7.380368
2025-12-28 0.028159 0.088445 0.243047 0.638788 1.572067 3.567264 7.974282
2026-01-04 0.027527 0.088929 0.250034 0.670600 1.679614 3.868764 8.768443